9 Eyebrow-Raising Numbers From Trump's Surprising Win

Shedding more light on Tuesday's biggest surprise.

Marcus Roberts | November 14, 2016 | 1,648

Shedding more light on Tuesday's biggest surprise.
9 Eyebrow-Raising Numbers From Trump's Surprising Win

We are still in the immediate aftermath of the US Presidential Elections, a surprise upset result that has resulted in millions of words being written and many surveys, postmortems, predictions and howls of anguish and triumph being unleashed. So here's one more to that pile.

As I mentioned in my last blogpost before the election, I thought that, if Trump won, it was because his supporters were more enthused than Clinton's were and were more likely to get out to vote than her's were. And it seems as if that was, in part, what happened last week – the number of Trump's votes was about the same as Romney's four years ago, while Clinton's total was well down from Obama's in 2012.

To add some further intrigue, let's pick over some of these surprises from the election carcass cooked up by the Washington Post. (NB: these surprises are all taken from the election day exit polls and therefore whether they can be relied upon is another matter!)

  1. Trump had a better margin over his rival among white voters (he beat Clinton by 21 points) than either Reagan or Romney did (both managed to win by 20).

  2. Despite all the predictions that Trump would do very badly with women, Clinton only beat him by 12 among women voters, Obama beat Romney by 11 with women four years ago.

  3. As I mentioned last week, Trump did better with Hispanic voters than Romney did four years ago (29 vs 27 per cent). Once again, things that the media and pundits thinks will turn off parts of the electorate were obviously not such big deals.

  4. Trump did better with white evangelical voters than Romney did in 2012 (both men won this group convincingly, taking 81 per cent and 78 per cent respectively).

  5. 52 per cent of voters said that the economy was the most important issue facing the country. Clinton won these voters by ten points.

  6. Nearly 40 per cent of voters thought that the most desirable candidate quality was one who “can bring needed change”. Trump, not surprisingly, won this group 83-14.

  7. Nearly half of the electorate thought that Obamacare “went too far” and Trump won this group 83-13. The announcement a couple of weeks before the election of average premium rises of 25 per cent would have helped Trump more than many are realising I think.

  8. Despite winning the election, the electorate has a low opinion of Trump. Only 38 per cent have a favorable opinion of him and only 35 per cent said he has the “temperament to serve effectively as President”!

  9. Most tellingly is the fact that two-thirds of voters feel that things were “seriously off on the wrong track”. Trump took 69 per cent of this group. That I think explains his success and is a bit of an indictment on the Obama legacy.

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